Imports at major US retail container ports are expected to see double-digit year-over-year declines this spring and summer as the economic effects of the coronavirus pandemic continue.
That is the latest outlook according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) in the US and Hackett Associates.
NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said: “Factories in China are largely back online and stores that closed here in the US are starting to reopen, but volume is far lower than what we would see in a ‘normal’ year.
“Shoppers will come back and there is still a need for essential items, but the economic recovery will be gradual and retailers will adjust the amount of merchandise they import to meet demand.”
Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said: “Much will depend on consumers’ willingness to return to spending. Our view is that second-quarter economic growth will be significantly worse than the previous quarter, but we continue to expect recovery to come in the second half of the year, especially the fourth quarter and into 2021.
“This is based on the big and somewhat tenuous assumption that there is no second wave of the virus.”
US ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.37m 20ft Equivalent Units (TEU) in March, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available. That was the lowest volume since 1.34m TEU in March 2016, down 9.1% from this February and down 14.8% year-over-year.
April was estimated at 1.51m TEU, down 13.4% year-over-year. May is forecast at 1.47m TEU, down 20.4% from last year; June at 1.46m TEU, down 18.6%; July at 1.58m TEU, down 19.3%; August at 1.73m TEU, down 12%, and September at 1.7m TEU, down 9.3%.
Before the coronavirus began to have an effect on imports, February through May had been forecast at a total of 6.9m TEU but is now expected to total 5.87m TEU, a drop of 14.9%.
The first half of 2020 is forecast to total 9.15m TEU, down 13% from the same period last year. Before the extent of the pandemic was known, the first half of the year was forecast at 10.47m TEU.
Imports during 2019 totalled 21.6m TEU, a 0.8% decrease from 2018 amid the trade war with China but still the second-highest year on record.
Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by the consulting firm Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
Subscription information for non-members can be found at www.globalporttracker.com.
