… but numbers still below 2019
The impact of COVID-19 at major US retail container ports appears to be easing slightly.
Projected imports remain below last year’s levels but not as much as previously forecast, according to the Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
“The numbers we’re seeing are still below last year, but are better than what we expected a month ago,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said.
“It may still be too soon to say but we’ll take that as a sign that the situation could be slowly starting to improve. Consumers want to get back to shopping, and as more people get back to work, retailers want to be sure their shelves are stocked.”
“Imports are erratic, with one month up and the next down,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. “Getting 40 million people back to work will take time, especially with many fearful of catching the virus and staying home. That makes a rapid return to an economic boom unlikely.”
US ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.61m TEU in April, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available. That was down 7.8% from a year earlier, but up 17% from a four-year low seen in March and significantly better than the 1.51m TEU previously expected.
May was estimated at 1.58m TEU, down 14.6% year-over-year, but up from the 1.47m TEU forecast a month ago. June is forecast at 1.56m TEU, down 12.9% from last year but up from the previous forecast of 1.46m TEU, while July is forecast at 1.62m TEU, down 17.4% from last year but up from 1.58m TEU previously expected.
August is forecast at 1.71m TEU, just below the 1.73m TEU expected a month ago and down 12.9% from last year, while September is forecast at 1.66m TEU, slightly lower than the 1.7m TEU expected a month ago and down 11.3% from last year.
October, which was not previously forecast, is expected to total 1.73m TEU, down 7.9% from last year. That would mark the first time since April that the year-over-year decline would drop from double digits to single digits.
Imports for the six-month period from April through September are expected to total 9.74m TEU, a three percent improvement from the 9.46m TEU expected a month ago.
The first half of 2020 is forecast to total 9.46m TEU, down 10% from the same period last year but better than the 9.15m TEU expected a month ago. Before the extent of the pandemic was known, the first half of the year was forecast at 10.47m TEU.
Imports during 2019 totaled 21.6m TEU, a 0.8% decrease from 2018 amid the trade war with China but still the second-highest year on record.
