The cost of flying for passengers is set to increase in the next ten years due to rising taxes on existing fuels (JetA1) and the significantly greater production costs of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), according to aviation industry consultant IBA.
IBA has forecast that the current average global air ticket price of £101 (US$134) could rise to £122 ($161) by 2030, an increase of 20%.
In a recent webinar on Net Zero aviation, IBA’s expert panel outlined how the aviation industry is under increased pressure to accelerate its sustainability actions, particularly following IATA’s pledge for the sector to become Net Zero by 2050.
The panel revealed that, although aviation contributes around 3% of global emissions, it contributes around 4% of global GDP and employs 87.7 million people globally.
Data from IBA’s InsightIQ data platform shows that 85% of global aviation emissions are emitted on journeys stretching over 1,500km, on routes where there generally is no viable green alternative.
Commuter and regional aircraft will be the first to decarbonise, with electric and SAF-powered aircraft predicted to be used for journeys under 60 minutes from 2025 onwards.
The industry may also see hybrid electric or hydrogen aircraft in action across regional and short haul flights towards the end of the next decade.
Phil Seymour, President of IBA, says: “Following COP26, sustainability and creating a greener, more efficient world has never been higher on the global agenda, and is a particular area of focus for the aviation industry.
“The sector is already making great strides towards Net Zero, with new technological innovations such as SAF and new, more efficient aircraft models. It’s no wonder that a flight today generates just 50% fewer emissions that one in 1990.”
“The continued reduction of emissions across the sector will pose economic and social challenges. However, with new technology such as electric and hydrogen powered aircraft, and government funding for sustainable aviation initiatives being introduced, our industry is in the best position we have ever been to reach Net Zero by 2050.”
IBA’s latest Carbon Emissions Calculator data also highlighted the current and predicted efficiency levels of the top four US airlines.
The current worst performing US airline is Delta, whose average CO2 per-seat per-mile in 2021 came in at 149.65g, the best performing US airline is currently American Airlines at 148.18g of CO2 per-seat per-mile in 2021.
Looking forward to 2025, IBA predicts Southwest will have the highest level of CO2 per-seat per-mile at 145.71g – with United, Delta and American Airlines performing the best with an estimated 138g of CO2 per-seat per-mile per-airline.
However, IBA predicts that the rate of CO2 per-seat per-mile will decrease from 2021 to 2025 by 8% for American Airlines and United, 11% for Delta, and 5% for Southwest. This is due to large scale retirements and deliveries of younger, more efficient aircraft for each airline. All four airlines have also committed to be carbon neutral and net-zero by 2050.
IBA’s expert team of ISTAT-certified appraisers also highlighted the fuel efficiency of turboprops and older generation aircraft.They highlighted how turboprops can be around 15-20% more efficient than narrowbodies on short sectors, with greater fuel efficiency of turboprop technology over jets offsetting the lower seat count.
Although global airlines are under pressure to introduce younger fleets, IBA is not forecasting a material change in the age of the global fleet in the coming years, as older aircraft types remain the preferred option of airlines for certain route types and markets.
IBA also analysed lessors’ contribution to CO2 emissions throughout 2021.
Nordic Aviation Capital is ranked as the lessor with the highest emissions per-seat per-mile (181g), whilst Air Lease Corporation had the highest per-flight (37,000kgs).
Overall, the emissions from lessor’s fleets are still only 50% of 2019 levels – this is due to shorter sectors, fewer flights, a higher ratio of newer aircraft to older variants, and higher storage levels which are still suppressing the sector’s contribution to CO2 emissions.
IBA also forecasts that lessors will sell many aircraft over the coming years to improve their portfolio profiles and take advantage of potentially improving market values.
Data from IBA’s InsightIQ platform highlighted that the top 12 lessors account for 2,000 new orders.
This is close to 75% of the lessor backlog, and just under 20% of the overall backlog – with most of these expected to be delivered by 2030.
