Airbus’ latest Global Market Forecast (GMF) for 2022-2041 predicts demand for freighters to reach 2,440 additional aircraft over the next 20 years, with nearly 900 of these being new-builds.
The GMF says that world international trade is expected to double in the next 20 years with resulting strong demand for air cargo.
Express volumes, boosted by e-commerce, will outpace the growth in general air cargo. Express will represent 25% of 430bn FTKs in 2041, up from 17% in the 2019 figure of 215bn ATKs.
The world freighter fleet in service will reach 3,070 aircraft by 2041, up from 2,030 at the beginning of 2020.
Some 31% of the 2020 freighter fleet will stay in-service (including 2020 & 2021 deliveries), while 69% will be replaced.
Deliveries and conversions will total 2,440 freighters by 2041, with 1,400 being replacement aircraft and a further 1,040 representing growth over 2020.
The 2,440 additional freighters (growth and replacement over 2020’s total fleet) will consist of 990 single-aisle aircraft in the 10 tonne to 40 tonne capacity range, while 890 aircraft will be mid-size with a capacity range between 40 tonnes and 80 tonnes.
There will be some 560 large and widebody freighters with a cargo payload of more than 80 tonnes, according to the GMF.
